Kashmir Delimitation:
Redrawing electoral constituencies and allocating six of the seven constituencies to the Jammu division and only one to the Kashmir division has resulted in unprecedented political parity between the two regions. Riyaz Wani contributed reporting.
With the completion of the contentious Delimitation Commission, Jammu and Kashmir are anticipating Assembly elections later this year. Although the center has yet to decide on the timing of the election, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh stated during a recent visit to the union territory that the exercise is to take place by the end of this year.
Redrawing electoral constituencies and allocating six of the seven constituencies to the Jammu division and only one to the Kashmir division has resulted in unprecedented political parity between the two regions. Riyaz Wani contributed reporting.
With the completion of the contentious Delimitation Commission, Jammu and Kashmir are anticipating Assembly elections later this year. Although the center has yet to decide on the timing of the election, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh stated during a recent visit to the union territory that the exercise is to take place by the end of this year.
"the electoral process will begin by the end of this year."
Singh's tentative timeline came two days after the Election Commission began revising the union territory's electoral rolls. Preparing draught rolls will be completed by August 31, paving the way for elections.
J&K has been without an elected government since June 2018, after the PDP-led coalition government lost its majority after the BJP withdrew. The last three years have seen a dramatic political transformation of the state-turned-union territory, so much so that in many ways, J&K today bears little resemblance to what it was before August 2019.
Singh's tentative timeline came two days after the Election Commission began revising the union territory's electoral rolls. Preparing draught rolls will be completed by August 31, paving the way for elections.
J&K has been without an elected government since June 2018, after the PDP-led coalition government lost its majority after the BJP withdrew. The last three years have seen a dramatic political transformation of the state-turned-union territory, so much so that in many ways, J&K today bears little resemblance to what it was before August 2019.
Is there going to be a change of guard?
Meanwhile, the center is considering replacing J&K Governor Manoj Sinha with senior BJP leader Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi. According to the news agency IANS, Naqvi "finally emerged as the top choice for the Lt Governor's post in J&K after New Delhi's growing concern over the recent targeted killings and its eagerness to have an elected government in office sooner rather than later."
It has been cited why the BJP did not run Naqvi in the recent Rajya Sabha elections. If this occurs, people are likely to interpret it as a form of political outreach, given that Naqvi will be the first-ever J&K today and bears little resemblance to what it was before August 2019.
Meanwhile, the center is considering replacing J&K Governor Manoj Sinha with senior BJP leader Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi. According to the news agency IANS, Naqvi "finally emerged as the top choice for the Lt Governor's post in J&K after New Delhi's growing concern over the recent targeted killings and its eagerness to have an elected government in office sooner rather than later."
It has been cited why the BJP did not run Naqvi in the recent Rajya Sabha elections. If this occurs, people are likely to interpret it as a form of political outreach, given that Naqvi will be the first-ever J&K today and bears little resemblance to what it was before August 2019.
Is there going to be a change of guard?
J&K's Muslim Governor is India's only Muslim-majority region. When set against the BJP's long-standing agenda of working for the election of a Hindu chief minister for the region, the likely change of guard gains more resonance.
J&K's Muslim Governor is India's only Muslim-majority region. When set against the BJP's long-standing agenda of working for the election of a Hindu chief minister for the region, the likely change of guard gains more resonance.
Some flaws in the PAGD ranks
The People's Alliance for Gupkar Declaration (PAGD) has already stated that it intends to run in future Assembly elections together. Even though the alliance includes four parties (the National Conference, the PDP, the Communist Party, and the Awami National Conference), the first two have the largest support bases, giving the alliance. Speaking to the media in May, former J&K Chief Minister and NC working president Omar Abdullah argued that the PAGD should fight elections together to prevent the BJP and its "B and C parties" from gaining power.
PDP leader Mehbooba Mufti later expressed a similar sentiment. "When you look at the bigger picture, the bigger interests of the state, we need to do whatever is necessary to stand up to the BJP government's onslaught on Jammu and Kashmir," Mufti. "We must stick together, whether during elections or not."
Neither party has made a formal announcement. And they might not do it before the elections. In the coming weeks or months Though it may appear logical for the alliance to decide to run together in the District Development Council elections, their previous experience does not inspire much confidence. The parties fought over seat distribution and later fielded proxy candidates against each other. Though the PAGD won a majority of seats in the DDC elections, the bickering strained relations between the partners.
The People's, led by Sajjad Gani Lone, left the PAGD shortly after the elections, citing the issue of proxy candidates. Lone has since gone about bolstering his northern party. Apni Party is another political organization that arose after the withdrawal. It is perceived to be close to the BJP, even though its leader, Altaf Bukhari, has sought to distance himself from the saffron party.
As a result, predicting how things will turn out is difficult. The redrawing of the electoral constituencies, with the Jammu division receiving six of the seven constituencies and the Kashmir division receiving only one, has resulted in parity in the political weight of the two regions. It has altered the political landscape of J&K. It could pave the way for a future Jammu and Kashmir chief minister.
Or, from the BJP's perspective, an ideal arrangement would be a government dominated by the party, whose chances following the delimitation would be enhanced. Eats appear brighter Or, at the very least, a government comprised of the party or parties that have accepted the loss of autonomy as a fait accompli. And such a scenario appears to be entirely plausible. Over the last three years, the center has formed parties that, while not toeing its line, would not dare challenge it.
"As things stand, it appears unlikely that the center will allow any situation to emerge following the polls that challenge its Kashmir project or threatens to reverse the gains made in recent years," a local daily editorial.
The People's Alliance for Gupkar Declaration (PAGD) has already stated that it intends to run in future Assembly elections together. Even though the alliance includes four parties (the National Conference, the PDP, the Communist Party, and the Awami National Conference), the first two have the largest support bases, giving the alliance. Speaking to the media in May, former J&K Chief Minister and NC working president Omar Abdullah argued that the PAGD should fight elections together to prevent the BJP and its "B and C parties" from gaining power.
PDP leader Mehbooba Mufti later expressed a similar sentiment. "When you look at the bigger picture, the bigger interests of the state, we need to do whatever is necessary to stand up to the BJP government's onslaught on Jammu and Kashmir," Mufti. "We must stick together, whether during elections or not."
Neither party has made a formal announcement. And they might not do it before the elections. In the coming weeks or months Though it may appear logical for the alliance to decide to run together in the District Development Council elections, their previous experience does not inspire much confidence. The parties fought over seat distribution and later fielded proxy candidates against each other. Though the PAGD won a majority of seats in the DDC elections, the bickering strained relations between the partners.
The People's, led by Sajjad Gani Lone, left the PAGD shortly after the elections, citing the issue of proxy candidates. Lone has since gone about bolstering his northern party. Apni Party is another political organization that arose after the withdrawal. It is perceived to be close to the BJP, even though its leader, Altaf Bukhari, has sought to distance himself from the saffron party.
As a result, predicting how things will turn out is difficult. The redrawing of the electoral constituencies, with the Jammu division receiving six of the seven constituencies and the Kashmir division receiving only one, has resulted in parity in the political weight of the two regions. It has altered the political landscape of J&K. It could pave the way for a future Jammu and Kashmir chief minister.
Or, from the BJP's perspective, an ideal arrangement would be a government dominated by the party, whose chances following the delimitation would be enhanced. Eats appear brighter Or, at the very least, a government comprised of the party or parties that have accepted the loss of autonomy as a fait accompli. And such a scenario appears to be entirely plausible. Over the last three years, the center has formed parties that, while not toeing its line, would not dare challenge it.
"As things stand, it appears unlikely that the center will allow any situation to emerge following the polls that challenge its Kashmir project or threatens to reverse the gains made in recent years," a local daily editorial.
Statehood will come with strings attached.
Will elections result in the restoration of statehood? That is to be expected. The center has already stated granted n after an elected government has formed, without specifying a timeframe. As a result, this may take longer than expected. New Delhi has stated that it will wait to see how the elected government performs and behaves before deciding whether or not to restore statehood. A government-led or influenced by the BJP is expected to pave the way for a faster return to statehood than a non-BJP government.
It is unclear whether the statehood to be granted will be complete or truncated, a Delhi-style arrangement in which the real power remains with the lieutenant governor. Such an arrangement would hardly improve the current state of affairs in J&K because not much would change on the ground.
"The center's main concern would be to discourage the formation of a government that pushes for the restoration of Article 370," an unnamed political analyst. "And, as things stand, it doesn't appear likely that the situation will deviate from the center's expectations."
Will elections result in the restoration of statehood? That is to be expected. The center has already stated granted n after an elected government has formed, without specifying a timeframe. As a result, this may take longer than expected. New Delhi has stated that it will wait to see how the elected government performs and behaves before deciding whether or not to restore statehood. A government-led or influenced by the BJP is expected to pave the way for a faster return to statehood than a non-BJP government.
It is unclear whether the statehood to be granted will be complete or truncated, a Delhi-style arrangement in which the real power remains with the lieutenant governor. Such an arrangement would hardly improve the current state of affairs in J&K because not much would change on the ground.
"The center's main concern would be to discourage the formation of a government that pushes for the restoration of Article 370," an unnamed political analyst. "And, as things stand, it doesn't appear likely that the situation will deviate from the center's expectations."
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